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Breaking into the planet's most popular museum in the middle of the day, taking eight pieces of priceless Napoleonic jewellery and disappearing into Paris traffic on simple scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, carried out for international notoriety and ensuing Hollywood film treatments.

Specialists who observe trends in international art crime, however, see Sunday morning’s robbery at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the most recent in a series of quick-hit thefts centered more on the monetary worth of precious stones or materials than the historical importance, continuing a pattern that has appeared over the last ten years in Europe, Britain and the US. The venue, they suggest, would have been of secondary concern to the thieves.

“You may ask why criminals who want to take expensive jewellery are entering a world-famous museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” said Christopher A Marinello. “It's straightforward: it’s because these days a high-end boutique is more secure.”

A series of aggressive jewellery shop thefts indicate that many outlets have strengthened their security in recent years, with security personnel on their locations and merchandise no longer kept on display overnight. Museums, meanwhile, look more exposed, partly because of the in-built factor of being accessible institutions in older structures, and also the financial situation in many western countries.

“Since Covid, authorities across the globe have reduced spending on police and the culture sector,” said Marinello. “With criminals entering the Louvre, it demonstrates how vulnerable our institutions have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The theft of the objects – featuring necklaces made up of precious stones and 631 diamonds, the crown of a historical figure containing thousands of diamonds and a extremely expensive crown once owned by a royal that the robbers dropped by the roadside on their way out – has naturally drawn comparisons with the 1911 theft of the famous painting from the same museum, carried out by the worker Vincenzo Peruggia.

Better points of reference may be the recent burglary of valuables from a German institution worth over millions, the taking of a £4.75m valuable object from a UK landmark the same year, the recent heist of a valuable item from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a series of thefts of collector items from American institutions.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as rapidly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to remain intact, experts say, the thieves would struggle to find a buyer. “There’s no way to sell something as recognizable as the museum's gems on the licit market”, commented Lynda Albertson of the a relevant organization.

“They would be immediately recognised, especially given the Ministry of Culture has published photos of the items. Even a private collector or an auction house would want to see documentation establishing legal possession before handling such remarkable pieces.”

In the previous years, museums were often reluctant to announce publicly about the disappearance of famous art pieces and would stay silent out of shame. These days, as cultural robberies are more widely publicised, the keeping and sale of taken items is risky business for any lawbreaker.

“If you steal a famous painting, it has to stay complete or it becomes worthless, and you have to conceive of a plan to conceal it, maybe by passing it around dangerous individuals,” said Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the risk of an accomplice informing authorities to cash in a ransom.”

For comparable factors, an investigator said it was highly improbable that the theft had been commissioned. “Stolen to order is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It’s all around the world and in all the media. If you buy this, if you get caught, you go to jail. You cannot show it to your friends, you cannot leave it to your family.”

Modifying stolen works by melting down or reshaping does reduce the value. When it comes to gems, it also comes with considerable risk because contemporary cutting techniques give stones a bigger and lighter surface area, and antique-cut stones would either draw unwanted attention or barter the price down for a coverup.

Crucially, however, dismantling or re-cutting eliminates the evidence of the crime. “My guess is that the robbers will try to bring the stolen goods to locations with diamond expertise like a country, India or even as nearby as Antwerp, and find someone to cut out the gems,” suggested Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about security measures at the institution, with a unauthorized official review expected to be published soon criticising “considerable” and “persistent” delays in modernizing equipment and noting that security cameras were lacking in many rooms. But security experts say showing precious items in historic buildings with a steady stream of visitors comes with dangers that are impossible to eliminate completely.

“Older structures are much harder to secure,” said Erin Thompson. “They often have nice big street-facing windows that makes it easy for thieves to get away, and there may be building protection statutes in place that mean you are unable to install them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The most solid security systems for structures should be designed “like a fortress”, noted a security advisor. “It should include multiple levels to repel intruders.”

Modern buildings are equipped with advanced external CCTV cameras or integrated seismic detectors that raise alarm about a broken glass in real time, but historic institutions may be hesitant to uglify their exteriors. Detection devices can be difficult to fit to stuccoed ceilings. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be turned off during the day as hordes of visitors walk through a museum.

The timing of the robbery, which occurred between morning hours in Paris, was typical of modern robberies, Stürmann said. “It's logical why robberies tend to happen at either opening or closing times. Frequently when security change their shifts and prior to the museum is full of visitors who effectively act as additional security staff.”

Technological progress may have thrown up new devices that can raise the alarm more rapidly and effectively, but it has also given thieves new tools with which to circumvent protections. In Paris, the robbers reached the museum’s first-floor window with a vehicle-mounted ladder and breached a glass pane with a battery-powered disc cutter.

An author said the discussion in France about the 232-year-old structure had mostly focused on crowd control in recent years, and not as much on protection.

The museum has an in-house brigade of about fifty full-time firefighters, but their purpose is mostly to protect the collection from blazes and water damage. “There is no rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “In the end, the security of the Louvre all depends on government support and funding, and at present France simply has no money.”