Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
