Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
