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Amid the widespread uncertainty regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and seize its president – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.